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Can Russia and the West Avoid a Major Cyber Escalation?

Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, many experts and cybersecurity agencies have issued warnings about possible Russian cyberattacks against critical infrastructure. So far, this threat has not materialized, although there have been attempted attacks. Additionally, many pro-Ukrainian and pro-Russian hacktivists and cybercriminals have aligned themselves with the warring parties. These non-state actors have engaged in indiscriminate cyber operations against organizations associated with “the enemy,” including Western companies such as Nestlé. At the same time, Russia has announced that it will respond to this “cyber aggression” by the “collective West.” This begs the question of whether the cyber conflict surrounding the Russo-Ukrainian war will escalate. Moreover, is it possible that cyber operations will cross the conventional threshold and draw NATO directly into the conflict?

More external publications

  • Research and Analysis
Hand and Glove: How Authoritarian Cyber Operations Leverage Non-state Capabilities

26 June 2025
In this article, Jakob Bund examines how authoritarian states like Russia, China, and North Korea increasingly harness non-state cyber actors to expand their capabilities, blur attribution, and complicate global responses. He argues that this growing fusion of state and criminal or contractor activity demands integrated threat assessments and response tools that can operate independently of political attribution.

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